| Archived Save the Train forum articles - 2005 to 2010. See below
Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1180 Written by admin (Graham Ellis) on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 A "Where do we stand" topic, posted one year after this site was started. How is it that First can make the money to pay the government 1 billion pounds over 10 years, as they've said they'll do under the Great Western franchise? Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1183 Written by admin (Graham Ellis) on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 * - I do invite anyone with inside knowledge (I strongly suspect this forum to be widely read) to comment here, or to email me comments if you would like to make some observations if you would rather not post openly. * - For shorter trains, the crewing costs per passenger carried are much higher than for longer trains. Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1188 Written by aik4on on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 This plan would be politically unacceptable so I can't see it ever happening. The future motives for both FGW and DfT are clear cut. DfT wants to dramatically reduce the subsidy it pays to railways and FGW wants to make a large profit. Therefore, those services that do not make a profit will be cut because the DfT will not subsidise them and FGW will not run them at a loss (as a completely commercial company, why should they?). However, these cuts will be ameliorated somewhat by the 'political acceptability' factor. We saw how the political and local outcry over the draft December 2006 timetable eventually led to the partial or complete reversal of many of the proposed cuts. Most of these services have been re-instated (unfortunately, with the exception of Melksham, the Cornish branchlines and one or two late night Thames Valley services) and the reason for this is that the DfT and the Secretary of State were genuinely taken aback by the level of opposition and, in particular, the fury of politicians. At the time, Darling did not want to be seen as the new Dr Beeching. Also, I suspect that the DfT messed up and did not adequately understand the consequences of a franchise/timetable specification that had, after all, been put together by the now defunct Strategic Rail Authority. So, the DfT put its hand in its pocket and splashed out on some additional rolling stock and FGW helped with some additional, clever timetabling and thus most of the proposed cuts were reversed. In view of this, I feel the most likely future is that the December 2006 timetable quantuum will be maintained but not expanded over the life of the franchise. This may result in more overcrowding at peak times in busy corridors, for example, between Bath and Bristol, but there is actually still a lot of capacity across the network at off-peak times and even during the peak local trains that are now crowded as they pull out of Bath are often mostly empty by the time they arrive at Trowbridge. FGW will certainly increase unregulated fares way above the rate of inflation on busy, popular routes and those who need 'turn up and go' tickets and to travel in the peak will be heavily penalised. Those who can travel off-peak and book in advance will benefit from cheaper tickets, as will those in areas where there is lots of capacity (there have been a number of fares cuts in Devon and Cornwall, for example). Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1190 Written by admin (Graham Ellis) on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 [quote author=aik4on link=topic=400.msg1188#msg1188 date=1155632957] This plan would be politically unacceptable so I can't see it ever happening.[/quote] But acceptability changes, alas. Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1191 Written by Lee on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 Just a further question to add to Graham's : Do you know whats going on with Pilning station? There are no trains listed in the final FGW timetable. Is Pilning looking at a "parliamentary" service or complete closure? Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1192 Written by aik4on on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 I'm certainly not suggesting that there will be no more changes just that the changes you outline for the next 5 to 10 years are extreme and, in my opinion, would prove to be politically unacceptable in an age when politicians are increasingly sensitive to any form of public/media criticism. Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1193 Written by Lee on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 I have to say that id really appreciate an answer on the Pilning question. Could you possibly ask one of your contacts? Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1194 Written by aik4on on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 [quote author=Lee link=topic=400.msg1191#msg1191 date=1155648913] Just a further question to add to Graham's : Do you know whats going on with Pilning station? There are no trains listed in the final FGW timetable. Is Pilning looking at a "parliamentary" service or complete closure? [/quote] The cuts are even more severe than at Melksham as I understand that it will be a Saturday only service from December 2006. Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1195 Written by Lee on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 Do you know what times the trains will run on Saturdays to Pilning and what service will provide them? Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1196 Written by aik4on on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 It's three trains on the Saturday but I don't have service details or timings. Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1198 Written by Lee on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 So you can absolutely guarantee that the following quote from the document link below is incorrect or that the original plan regarding Pilning that led to it has been partially reversed? http://www.minchind.fsnet.co.uk/bulletins/Bulletin%20Mar%2006.htm "FOSBR has also objected to new timetables proposed by First from December which worsen the service on the Severn Beach line (and worsen it much more on some other lines in the region). Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1199 Written by aik4on on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 I'm not in a position to guarantee anything absolutely! Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1201 Written by admin (Graham Ellis) on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 [quote author=aik4on link=topic=400.msg1192#msg1192 date=1155650134] Having said all that, I'd certainly offer no guarantee that there will be four trains a day calling at Melksham by 2012. Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1203 Written by aik4on on Tuesday, 15th August 2006 [quote author=Graham Ellis link=topic=400.msg1201#msg1201 date=1155659606] I have heard differently about the other branches making money, and from a First Manager. He suggested that even on the Exmouth branch, by the time the service had broken even the train would be ovecrowded for much of the time and that the service was always going to be dependent on subsidy unless a still-longer train could be filled. And he did quote specific figures to me. It's comments like that which make me fear for the future of all service that aren't currently supporting 4 or 5 coach trains, busy, as standard, but I do hope that you're right and I'm wrong. I can only re-emphasise that what's politically unacceptable only in part today can often become acceptable in full as a series of steps - perhaps an annual revision. But before that all comes to pass, there just might be different lords and masters in charge at the DfT, with a different agenda. [/quote] I don't have the figures so I really don't know but I do know that the 'revenue challenge' with all these services is to fill more capacity at off-peak times, hence the series of fares reductions in Devon and Cornwall. I accept what you say about stealth cuts and a war of attrition over the long-term and I'm not suggesting that some further cuts won't take place. I am saying that I think your vision as outlined is overly pessimistic. I also believe that the groundswell of opposition encountered during the Dec 06 consultation will make the pen-pushers at DfT think twice. [quote author=Graham Ellis link=topic=400.msg1201#msg1201 date=1155659606] It is indeed true that there was less of an outcry over the "TransWilts" that over - say - the Plymouth sleeper or the reduction from 3 coaches to 2 on the Cardiff to Portsmouth service. There's three factors here that the reader may not be aware of: a) With the sleeper, you're looking at 8 carriages and there are currently 24 carriages running the Cardiff to Portsmouth, as compared to 1 carriage effectively running the TransWilts. So you'll find that you get many, many more times the complaints about the sleeper and the Portsmouth service .... simply weight of numbers. But it's a falasy to suggest that it's a different financial case, because the cost of providing a realistic TransWilts service is also much lower than the cost of providing 8 extra coaches (and 3 or 4 locomotives?) for the sleeper ... [/quote] The sleeper service now actually makes a profit! [quote author=Graham Ellis link=topic=400.msg1201#msg1201 date=1155659606] c) There was a very great deal of input on the TransWilts. However, it was classified at consultation time into a number of separate categories - "Melksham" being one, "Westbury to Swindon" being another. The net result? The inputs were split in statistical terms between different pots, making it appear that there was as much upset around here as there actually is. [/quote] This is very true, I've seen the documents in question. In fact, opposition was fragmented into three sections with some comments appearing under just 'Swindon' in addition to under 'Melksham' and 'Westbury to Swindon'. Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1204 Written by admin (Graham Ellis) on Wednesday, 16th August 2006 Sleeper / publicity The sleeper campaign is a wonderful example of how publicity can boost a service ... as a resident who relies on the "TransWilts" service and sees how it has grown in spite of a lack of publicity, it provides me yet more circumstantial evidence that far better could have been achieved here. Re: Looking forward 5 and 10 years - 400/1207 Written by aik4on on Wednesday, 16th August 2006 [quote author=Graham Ellis link=topic=400.msg1204#msg1204 date=1155704817] Aik4on - do you know if SLC2 always allowed the evening 'peak' train to leave Swindon as late as 19:00, or was it altered to accommodate the train at 18:42? [/quote] I believe the original SLC2 stated that one service should arrive at Swindon between 0800 and 0830 and one should depart between 1730 and 1900. link to index of articles |
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Save the Train was the campaign to bring an approriate train service back to and through Melksham. Most big contributors are still around writing at the Coffee shop forum where new members are very welcome. The train has been saved - sort of - we have stepped back up from an unusable service to a poorish one but it's doing very well. We did that through setting up the TransWilts Community Rail Partnership. That fulfilled its early objectives; it has been taken over by local and regional government types who are now doing medium and long term work. The team from this forun can also be found at the Melksham Rail User Group (which was the Melksham Rail Development Group at the time these articles were written and we had no users. We mustn't loose sight, though, that the train service remains poor and needs our community support in marketing and campaigning to keep it going in a positive direction ... and all the more so when we're expecting to find a different normallity once we get out of the Coronavirus Pandemic and head for zero carbon via the climate crisis. Yes, it's saved ... it's now a key community facility ... the need for enhancement and the strong and near-universal local support remain, and the rail industry and goverment remain slow to move and provide the enhancements even to level us up with other towns. Please support the Melksham Rail User Group - now very much in partnership rather than protest with the rail industry and local government, including GWR, TransWilts and unitary and town councils. And please use the trains and buses, and cycle and walk when you can. -- Graham Ellis, (webmaster), February 2021 | |||
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